August isn't even halfway through, and soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are already experiencing limit-up prices. New spot prices: Grade 1 soybean oil is 8.590 RMB/ton, a 5.3% monthly surge; 24-degree palm oil is 9.480 RMB/ton, a 6.3% monthly increase; and Grade 3 rapeseed oil is 9.973 RMB/ton, a 3.5% monthly increase. In a nutshell—prices are rising.

1. Soybean and palm oil prices move first: Costs are igniting the market.

Brazil's discounts are skyrocketing: Despite favorable weather conditions for US soybeans, strong Chinese buying has caused Brazilian soybean premiums and discounts to soar, leading to a 6.3% monthly increase in import costs, directly driving up soybean oil prices.

The MPOB palm oil report is a bit exaggerated: Malaysia's July production and inventories both fell short of expectations. Coupled with the early speculation surrounding Indonesia's 2026 B50 biodiesel policy, international palm oil prices have jumped, with domestic landed prices rising 5.6% monthly.

2. Rapeseed Oil: Anti-dumping "Nuclear Bomb" Detonated

After the market closed on August 12. the Ministry of Commerce announced that dumping of Canadian rapeseed had been established, and the import margin would reach 75.8% starting August 14. A rough estimate puts the duty-paid cost of imported rapeseed at 6.400 RMB/ton, an increase of over 40%. Rapeseed oil prices surged over 6% in two days, completing a comeback.

3. The Story Isn't Over: The "High Fire" Will Continue in Mid-to-Late August

• The US Farmers' Report further cuts US soybean harvest area and ending stocks, indicating a bottom for US soybean futures prices;

• Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies are driving continued growth in palm oil demand;

• Canada's rapeseed import channel has implemented "tax increases and quotas," making rapeseed costs more likely to rise than to fall.

Conclusion: With three major price fluctuations on the cost side, the bull market for oil and fats will continue until the end of the month. Downstream investors, please buckle up and be cautious about chasing rising prices, but bearish sentiment is no longer appropriate.

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